The future: neither paradise nor perdition - For next 27 months, business more or less as usual
by Meghnad Desai
Britain and Europe have entered a new era after the 23 June UK referendum vote to leave the European Union. A first series of contributions examining the immediate aftermath brings the opinions of Meghnad Desai, John Redwood, Desmond Lachman and Brian Reading. Three of the writers are moderately sanguine about the UK’s economic future, while Lachman believes Britain has made a similar mistake to that caused by rejoining the gold standard in 1925.
Awakening for Europe’s believers - bad and good news if Britain leaves
By Jacques Lafitte
The ‘Panama papers’ tax avoidance affair has badly dented the authority of David Cameron, the UK prime minister – and could fatally undermine his ability to win the 23 June referendum. Britain’s departure from the European Union would have important implications.
Pains of German interdependence - Oswald Spengler’s doctrines strike home
By David Marsh
'Germany is not an island. No country is in the same degree woven actively or passively into the world’s destiny. Germany’s geographical position, its lack of natural borders, condemn it to this role. In the 18th and 19th centuries it was "Mitteleuropa", in the 20th it is once again a buffer against "Asia". The Germans, more than anyone, must think politically and economically well beyond their borders. Everything that happens afar sweeps through to the heart of Germany.'
After immigration, it’s London v the euro area - Europe starts preparing for future without the UK
By Jacques Lafitte and Denis MacShane
To read the press, 99% of the discussion over the deal that British Prime Minister David Cameron hopes will avoid Brexit has focused on supplements for low-pay European workers with children.
But this focus on EU migrant workers has obscured a much bigger issue – particularly in France and maybe not just there. In Paris, the issue is not what the UK does on immigration, but rather London’s bid for oversight of the euro area’s development.
Danger of the super-dollar: Emerging market debt bubble is worse than 2007-08.
By Marcello Minenna in Milan and Edoardo Reviglio in Rome
The dollar has reached its highest level since the early 2000s on a trade-weighted basis. This reflects higher US interest rates, expansive monetary policies elsewhere, and rising international tensions. The ‘super-dollar’ cheapens exports to America’s still world-beating economy, helping the world recovery.
Market Volatility: A Driving Force for Corporate Strategy
by Dr. Andreas Ludwig
Flexibility is key when dealing with volatility and creates security. International diversification can help absorb different fluctuations. But especially the organization’s ability to adapt to changing markets is crucial. Dr. Andreas Ludwigs, CEO of the Umdasch Group, outlines what measures his company has taken to reach this ability.